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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
GLO Discussion Paper No. 1585
Verlag: 
Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen
Zusammenfassung: 
Fertility rates have declined dramatically across almost all highincome countries over the past decades. This has raised concerns about future economic prospects. Indeed, fully- and semi-endogenous growth models imply that a shrinking workforce would lead to declining income growth and perhaps even stagnation. We extend the previous analyses to explicitly incorporate an endogenous quantity/quality trade-off between fertility and human capital accumulation. This allows us to assess the extent to which a declining number of workers can be compensated by increasing education. Our analysis demonstrates that economic growth needs not necessarily to decline with a falling population. Under certain conditions, human capital investment can sustain technological progress and economic growth despite the demographic challenges we are facing.
Schlagwörter: 
Demographic Change
Fertility Decline
Economic Growth
Research and Development
Endogenous Fertility
Endogenous Education
Human Capital Accumulation
JEL: 
J11
J13
O33
O41
I25
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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