Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/103982
Authors: 
Dick, Christian D.
MacDonald, Ronald
Menkhoff, Lukas
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Kiel Working Paper 1974
Abstract: 
Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, the relationship is stronger during phases when the impact from fundamentals is more obvious, e.g., when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values. Finally, forecasters largely agree that an interest rate increase relates to a currency appreciation, but only good forecasters get expected interest rates right.
Subjects: 
Exchange Rate Determination
Individual Expectations
Macroeconomic Fundamentals
JEL: 
F31
F37
E44
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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