Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/103982 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2014
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Kiel Working Paper No. 1974
Verlag: 
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel
Zusammenfassung: 
Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, the relationship is stronger during phases when the impact from fundamentals is more obvious, e.g., when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values. Finally, forecasters largely agree that an interest rate increase relates to a currency appreciation, but only good forecasters get expected interest rates right.
Schlagwörter: 
Exchange Rate Determination
Individual Expectations
Macroeconomic Fundamentals
JEL: 
F31
F37
E44
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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