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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9394
Versionsangabe: 
This Version: October 2025
Verlag: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new panel survey of German manufacturing firms, we observe both forecasts of sales growth and a quantitative measure of subjective uncertainty. We show that subjective uncertainty reflects change experienced by firms: it is high when growth is either unusually low or unusually high. Subjective uncertainty is more than conditional volatility: while more volatile firms are typically more uncertain, experienced change alone increases uncertainty, consistent with a model of learning. Uncertainty over our sample is mostly idiosyncratic but varies substantially over time and leads managers to plan lower employment and prices.
Schlagwörter: 
expectation formation
firms
measurement
subjective uncertainty
survey data
JEL: 
C83
D22
E20
E23
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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