Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334528 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Kiel Working Paper No. 2309
Publisher: 
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel
Abstract: 
How do adverse global trade shocks affect sub-national outcomes, and what insurance does regional integration provide? We study the EU Single Market using a large-scale quantitative trade model with regional labour mobility, calibrated to a new NUTS2- based Regionalized Inter-Country Input-Output (REICIO) database. Comparing four baselines, from a fully frag-mented Europe to deep integration, we evaluate the 2025 US tariffs. Full integration of EU goods and labour markets reduces the average regional loss in real value added per capita by about 25% and more than halves its dispersion. Further deepening barely improves the mean but compresses the distribution of regional impacts even further.
Subjects: 
Global Trade Wars
MRIO
ICIO
European Regions
NUTS2
Global Value Chains
Sectoral Mobility Frictions
Trade Integration
JEL: 
F15
F16
F17
R15
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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