Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/310398 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 759
Publisher: 
Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila
Abstract: 
Although agriculture is often considered vulnerable to climate change, recent gridded crop growth modelling intercomparison exercises have found that staple crop yields will be modestly affected by global warming. However, those crop growth models also do not fully reflect impacts of increasing climate extremes. This paper uses global remote sensing-derived yield and agrometeorological reanalysis data to construct a grid cell panel at 0.1-degree resolution for 2003-2015. Regressions that control for grid cell-specific intercepts and time trends, temperature, rainfall, and cloudiness empirically estimate the relationship between yields and precipitationevapotranspiration extremes for each growing season of rice, wheat, and maize by subregion. Estimated coefficients are applied to projections from an ensemble of global circulation models to project potential losses from climate change. All crops are found as having substantial potential future global yield reductions, but reductions are highest for wheat and maize, with losses most pronounced in Southern Asia and Southern Africa.
Subjects: 
agriculture
climate change
drought
yield loss
JEL: 
Q12
Q15
Q54
D22
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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