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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10349
Versionsangabe: 
This Version: June 2025
Verlag: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
Using a new database on global multinational production (MP), I document that world multinational enterprise (MNE) sales declined as sharply as trade during the Great Recession. This collapse was driven by MNEs from a few key headquarters countries, associated with steeper GDP declines in MP-intensive countries. MNEs amplified the trade collapse because their overall sales fell while they maintained higher trade intensity than domestic firms. In a calibrated quantitative model with flexible vertical and horizontal MNE structures, international trade, and input-output linkages, I show that supply shocks contributed more to the trade collapse than demand shocks, as productivity shocks disproportionately affected trade-intensive MNEs. MNE productivity shocks contributed over half of global GDP decline during the Great Recession. MP linkages significantly amplified the impact of headquarters-country domestic productivity shocks on global GDP, MP, and trade.
Schlagwörter: 
Multinational Production
International Trade
Great Recession
JEL: 
F12
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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2 10419/271993.2 This Version: June 2025
1 10419/271993 Original Version: March 2023

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