Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/233079
Authors: 
Mughal, Mazhar
Javed, Rashid
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
GLO Discussion Paper No. 824
Abstract: 
An aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic that merits attention is its effects on marriage and childbirth. Although the direct fertility effects of peo- ple getting the virus may be minor, the impact of delayed marriages due to the first preventive lockdown, such as that imposed in Pakistan from March 14 to May 8 2020, and the closure of marriage halls that lasted till September 14 may be non-negligible. These demographic consequences are of particular import to developing countries such as Pakistan where birth rates remain high, marriage is nearly universal, and almost all child- bearing takes place within marriage. Based on historic marriage patterns, we estimate that the delay in nuptiality during the first phase of coron- avirus outbreak may affect about half of the marriages that were to take place during the year. In Pakistan, childbearing begins soon after mar- riage, and about 37% of Pakistani married women give birth to their first child within twelve months of marriage. A sizeable number out of these around 400,000 annual births that occur within twelve months of the mar- riage may consequently be delayed. Postponement of marriages due to the accompanying difficult economic situation and employment precari- ousness should accentuate this fertility effect. The net fertility impact of the Covid-19 outbreak would ultimately depend not only on the delay in marriages but also on the reproductive behavior of existing couples.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
coronavirus
lockdown
marriage
childbirth
fertility
Pakistan
JEL: 
I10
I18
J10
J12
J13
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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