Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/161616
Authors: 
Gori, Luca
Lupi, Enrico
Manfredi, Piero
Sodini, Mauro
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
GLO Discussion Paper 75
Abstract: 
According to the conventional theory of the demographic transition, mortality decline has represented the major trigger for fertility decline and eventually sustained economic development. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the HIV/AIDS epidemic has had a devastating impact on mortality, by dramatically reversing, in high HIV-prevalence countries, the long-term positive trend in life expectancies. Despite the fact that SSA as a whole is suffering a delayed and slow fertility transition compared to other world’s regions, and despite evidence for halting or even reverting fertility decline in countries with severe HIV epidemics, there seems to be little concern amongst international policy makers, about the ultimate impact that HIV might have on SSA fertility. This work reports model-based evidence of the potential for a HIV-triggered reversal of fertility in high HIV-prevalent SSA countries induced by the fall in education and human capital investments following the drop in life expectancy for young adults. This eventually breaks down the virtuous circle promoting the switch quantity-to-quality of children. This result suggests that the current evidence on fertility halting and declining education in high HIV-prevalent SSA countries should be seriously taken into consideration to prioritise current international interventions.
Subjects: 
Sub-Saharan Africa
fertility transition
quantity-quality switch
HIV/AIDS epidemics
human capital accumulation
fertility reversal
JEL: 
J11
J13
O1
O41
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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