Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/76611 
Year of Publication: 
2004
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 1184
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper estimates the potential migration from eight EU accession countries as well as Bulgaria and Romania as a result of the eastern enlargement. The experience of migration from Greece, Portugal and Spain is used to estimate the parameters of a migration function, exploiting panel estimation techniques. The results from the models are then used for so-called double out of sample extrapolations - for ten countries that are not within the estimated sample and for the time period in the future. It was found that potential migration flows from central and eastern Europe will be modest. Moreover, legal introduction of free movement of workers seems not to increase migration significantly, contrary to what one might expect.
Subjects: 
international migration
migration projections
EU enlargement
panel estimation
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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