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Flaig, Gebhard
Ploetscher, Claudia
Year of Publication: 
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 233
This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the cycle the estimation of the output gap is much more precise and out-of-sample forecasts exhibit smaller prediction errors.
Output gap
unobserved component models
survey data
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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