Kaufmann, Hendrik Kruse, Robinson Sibbertsen, Philipp
Year of Publication:
Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät, Universität Hannover 500
A simple procedure for the specification of the transition function describing the regime switch in nonlinear autoregressive models is proposed. This procedure is based on auxiliary regressions of unit root tests and is applicable to a variety of transition functions. In contrast to other procedures, complicated and computer-intense estimation of the candidate models is not necessary. Our approach entirely relies on OLS estimation of auxiliary regressions instead. We use standard information criteria for the selection of the unknown transition function. Our Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the approach works well in practice. Empirical applications to the S&P500 price-earnings ratio and the US interest spread highlight the merits of our suggested procedure.
Nonlinearity Smooth transition Threshold model Model selection Unit root