Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/71259
Authors: 
Dick, Christian D.
Menkhoff, Lukas
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper: Monetary Policy and International Finance 4181
Abstract: 
This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals´ expectations vary considerably as they generally follow strong exchange rate trends. In line with non-linear exchange rate-modeling, professionals expect mean reversion only if exchange rates deviate strongly from PPP. Chartists survive in currency markets since they forecast just as accurately as fundamentalists. Unexpectedly from an efficient market viewpoint, chartists even outperform fundamentalists at short horizons. Overall, these findings clearly support the chartist-fundamentalist approach.
Subjects: 
exchange rate formation
expectation formation
heterogeneous agent models
forecasting performance
JEL: 
F31
G15
D84
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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