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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2012
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Working Paper No. 2012-9
Verlag: 
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper proposes a Bayesian nonparametric modeling approach for the return distribution in multivariate GARCH models. In contrast to the parametric literature, the return distribution can display general forms of asymmetry and thick tails. An infinite mixture of multivariate normals is given a flexible Dirichlet process prior. The GARCH functional form enters into each of the components of this mixture. We discuss conjugate methods that allow for scale mixtures and nonconjugate methods, which provide mixing over both the location and scale of the normal components. MCMC methods are introduced for posterior simulation and computation of the predictive density. Bayes factors and density forecasts with comparisons to GARCH models with Student-t innovations demonstrate the gains from our flexible modeling approach.
Schlagwörter: 
Bayesian nonparametrics
cumulative Bayes factor
Dirichlet process mixture
forecasting
infinite mixture model
MCMC
slice sampler
JEL: 
C11
C14
C53
C58
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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