Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/49378 
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dc.contributor.authorRoos, Michael W.M.en
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Ulrichen
dc.date.accessioned2011-08-12-
dc.date.accessioned2011-09-09T12:46:09Z-
dc.date.available2011-09-09T12:46:09Z-
dc.date.issued2011-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/49378-
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time-series information versus information acquired outside the experimental setting such as knowledge of expert forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the influence of outside-lab information completely. Consequently, backward-looking behavior can be identified unambiguously as a decisive factor in expectation formation.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) |cKielen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aKiel Working Paper |x1723en
dc.subject.jelD83en
dc.subject.jelD84en
dc.subject.jelE37en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordExpectationsen
dc.subject.keywordmacroeconomic experimenten
dc.subject.keyworduse of informationen
dc.subject.keywordinflation forecastsen
dc.subject.stwErwartungstheorieen
dc.subject.stwInformationsverhaltenen
dc.subject.stwInflationserwartungen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen
dc.subject.stwTesten
dc.titleThe importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectations-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn665795254en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1723en

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