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dc.contributor.authorDöhrn, Rolanden
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Christoph M.en
dc.date.accessioned2011-04-04-
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-02T13:57:33Z-
dc.date.available2011-05-02T13:57:33Z-
dc.date.issued2010-
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-86788-228-6en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/45323-
dc.description.abstractThe accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into revised forecasts. In this paper we use a broad sample of forecasts of German GDP and its components to analyze the impact of institutions and information on forecast accuracy. We find that forecast errors are a linear function of the forecast horizon. This result is robust over a variety of different specifications. As better information seems to be the key to achieving better forecasts, approaches for acquiring reliable information early seem to be a good investment. By contrast, the institutional factors tend to be small and statistically insignificant. It has to remain open, whether this is the consequence of the efficiency-enhancing competition among German research institutions or rather the reflection of an abundance of forecast suppliers.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aRheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) |cEssenen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aRuhr Economic Papers |x201en
dc.subject.jelC53en
dc.subject.jelE27en
dc.subject.jelE01en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordforecast accuracyen
dc.subject.keywordforecast revisionsen
dc.subject.keywordforecast horizonen
dc.subject.keywordeconomic activityen
dc.titleInformation or Institution? – On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn635642387en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:rwirep:201en

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