Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/340010 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2026
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 10/2026
Verlag: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
Since 2018, tariffs have re-emerged as a tool for protecting domestic economies, particularly in the US. This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of various import tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network. The scenarios include unilateral US tariffs, coordinated US-EU tariffs, Chinese retaliation, Europe's non-participation, and sector-specific versus broad tariffs. Our results show that tariffs initially boost domestic value-added output by making local goods relatively cheaper. While consumption can increase permanently, the output benefits are short-lived. Increased production costs and reduced global income largely offset the output gains over time. Tariff-targeted countries have an incentive to retaliate, and when they do, these output/consumption gains do not materialize. As a result, welfare effects are negative. Regardless of direct involvement in tariff conflicts, the rest of the world suffers from reduced aggregate income. The effects of tariffs and strategic interac- tions depend on which sectors are subject to tariffs. Overall, tariffs appear to be an inefficient tool for economic protection due to the high probability of retaliation.
Schlagwörter: 
Tariffs
Trade Conflict
Protectionism
International Trade
DynamicGeneral Equilibrium Model
Production Network
JEL: 
F12
F13
F40
D57
E27
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
978-3-98848-067-5
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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