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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2026
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12415
Verlag: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper employs a joint SVAR-IV model for the United States and the euro area to estimate the pass-through of energy and food commodity cost shocks to inflation. Exogenous commodity cost shocks — such as those triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine — had only a modest impact on inflation during the post-pandemic period. However, counterfactual analyses based on the pass-through estimates indicate that overall commodity cost fluctuations — including their endogenous responses to macroeconomic conditions — can almost fully account for the rise and subsequent decline of energy, food, and core CPI inflation over this period. These findings highlight that commodity costs constitute a key transmission channel through which macroeconomic developments affect inflation. Estimates of a standard Phillips Curve specification, including its slope, are shown to be severely biased when this channel is ignored.
Schlagwörter: 
commodity costs
post-pandemic inflation
Phillips curve
JEL: 
E31
Q11
Q43
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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