Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338301 
Year of Publication: 
2026
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11668
Version Description: 
This Version: February 2026
Publisher: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
We assess how changes in the scientific consensus around equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), as captured by the IPCC's Fifth (AR5) and Sixth (AR6) Assessment Reports, impact policymakers' willingness to take climate action, including through increasing subsidies to investments that will help to deliver the clean energy transition. Taking the IPCC's reports at face value, the ECS estimates in AR6 would have lowered a policymaker's willingness to act on climate relative to AR5 due to a narrower "likely" range. However, Bayesian updating may reverse this conclusion. An accuracy-motivated policymaker who was not convinced to take greater climate action by the evidence in AR5 may be more likely to increase their investment in clean energy by the evidence in AR6.
Subjects: 
equilibrium climate sensitivity
Bayesian updating
climate policy
JEL: 
D83
H51
Q48
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper
Appears in Collections:

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.