Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/338233 
Year of Publication: 
2026
Series/Report no.: 
SWP Comment No. 5/2026
Publisher: 
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin
Abstract: 
The fossil-fuel foreign policy of the United States under President Donald Trump has intensified the conflict between petrostates and electrostates in international climate politics. At COP30 in Belém in November 2025, this cleavage was particularly evident in the dispute over a roadmap for the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF). While an increasing number of countries regard TAFF as a necessary consequence of the global energy transition, fossil fuel producers prevented any substantive progress being made. The conference highlighted the structural limits of the capacity of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to mediate this distributional conflict. As a result, the EU faces a strategic dilemma: to further politicise the COP process around TAFF or to prioritise the stabilisation of key mechanisms of the Paris Agreement. Whether it can overcome that dilemma will become apparent during the run-up to the next global stocktake, which is due at COP33 in India in 2028.
Subjects: 
global warming
fossil-fuel foreign policy
Donald Trump
Transition Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF)
COP30
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)
Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF)
Paris Agreement
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Research Report

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