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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series No. 455
Verlag: 
Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm
Zusammenfassung: 
Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government's pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occur when the stimulus exceeds expectations and are more noticeable during periods of high economic uncertainty. Analysis of a new dataset of daily stock prices and fiscal news in Japan supports these predictions. We introduce a method to identify fiscal news with different degrees of signaling effects and find that such effects weaken or, in extreme cases, even completely undermine the stabilizing impact of the announcements.
Schlagwörter: 
Fiscal policy
macroeconomic stabilization
uncertainty
imperfect information
JEL: 
E62
E32
D83
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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