Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336029 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12327
Publisher: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
Adverse economic shocks are known to reshape voter behavior – the demand side of politics. Much less is known about their consequences for the supply side: how such shocks affect who becomes a politician. This paper examines how job losses influence individuals' decisions to enter politics and the implications for political selection. Using administrative data linking political participation records to matched employer-employee data covering all formal workers in Brazil, and exploiting mass layoffs for causal identification, we find that job loss significantly increases the likelihood of joining a political party and running for local office. Layoff-induced candidates are positively selected on various competence measures, indicating that economic shocks can improve the quality of political entrants. The increase in candidacies is strongest among laid-off individuals with greater financial incentives from holding office and higher predicted income losses. A regression discontinuity design further shows that eligibility for unemployment benefits increases political entry. These results are consistent with a reduction in individuals' opportunity costs – both in terms of reduced private-sector income and increased time resources – facilitating greater political engagement.
Subjects: 
political selection
economic shocks
job loss
mass layoffs
JEL: 
D72
J63
J65
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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