Abstract:
We separate the effects of market power and capacity constraints in transportation. A simple model shows imperfect competition—not capacity constraints—generates differential freight price changes across buyers following a demand shock. Consistent with this, difference-in-differences estimates reveal, after COVID-19 demand surge, freight forwarders faced a 30 pp larger increase in base freight rates than direct shippers despite identical contract terms. This reflects rising carrier markups that disproportionately burden smaller firms and explain at least 35% of freight price growth and 16% of U.S. import price inflation. Thus, competition in transportation is crucial for supplychain resilience and macroeconomic stability