Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334645 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12289
Publisher: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
Focusing on global annual averages of climatic variables can bias aggregate and distributional estimates of the economic impacts of climate change. We here empirically identify dose-response functions of GDP growth rates to daily mean temperature levels and combine them with regional intra-annual climate projections of daily mean temperatures. We then disentangle, for various shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), how much of the missing impacts are due to heterogeneous warming patterns over space. Global damages in 2050 are 25% (21-28% across SSPs) higher when accounting for the shift in the shape of the entire intra-annual distribution of daily mean temperatures at the regional scale.
Subjects: 
damage functions
climate risk
climate shift
downscaling
spatial disaggregation
JEL: 
D62
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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