Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334627 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12271
Publisher: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
This paper examines how international trade shocks transmit through domestic supply chains, shaping local economic vulnerabilities. Using detailed firm-to-firm domestic and foreign transaction data, we quantify the direct and indirect exposure of Italian labor markets to two major sources of external risk: imports from China and exports to the United States. We quantify the importance of firms' domestic and foreign linkages for overall exposure and highlight the critical role of wholesalers and top trading firms within the domestic network in shaping tails risks. Pronounced local disparities in exposure reveal that aggregate trade statistics conceal substantial and uneven regional vulnerabilities.
Subjects: 
global value chains
local labor markets
trade shocks
firm-to-firm linkages
geopolitical fragmentation
production network
JEL: 
F14
R12
L14
F61
R15
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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