Abstract:
The relationship between Japan and China is of far-reaching importance for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, as the two countries are the world's fourth- and second-largest economies, respectively. Over the past 15 years, bilateral tensions have deepened markedly, even as the two countries have maintained close economic ties. During the one-year tenure of Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru (October 2024-October 2025), however, there were signs of a modest thaw in relations. In November 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping described the relationship as being "in a critical phase of improvement and development". His statement was followed by a series of diplomatic exchanges and Beijing even agreed to lift import restrictions on Japanese fishery products and beef. Yet, the thaw remained limited. Beijing has reverted to a confrontational posture following remarks on Taiwan by Japan's new Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae in early November. The relationship remains fragile.