Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322142 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 2025:7
Publisher: 
Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU), Uppsala
Abstract: 
Are workers with poor outside opportunities less responsive and more susceptible to negative demand shifts in routine occupations? To answer this, I create and estimate an occupation specialization index (OSI) using Swedish register data and machine learning tools. It measures the expected utility difference between a worker's occupation and his best outside option. This determines the loss he is willing to tolerate to avoid switching. Low-OSI generalists disproportionately left routine work. Their future wage growth was comparable to similar workers initially in non-routine occupations. By contrast, routine specialists largely stayed put and experienced lower wage growth than generalists and non-routine specialists.
Subjects: 
Multidimensional skills
Occupational structure changes
JEL: 
J23
J24
J31
J62
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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