Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/321899 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
SWP Comment No. 32/2025
Publisher: 
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin
Abstract: 
In recent months, there has been an intensifying debate over whether Europe can still rely on US extended nuclear deterrence or should begin to consider alternatives that are independent of Washington. A binary approach - trust or no trust - is of limited analytical value here; the subject matter demands greater differentiation. Accordingly, this paper presents three scenarios to allow for a better understanding of the key challenges and possible responses. The first scenario is a transatlantic crisis of trust that might be possible to address with moderate effort. The second is a breach of trust requiring increased conventional strength and the appropriate tools for escalation control in order to force the US to become involved if necessary. And the third scenario is one in which the Europeans conclude that the US has withdrawn its support completely - a development that would have far-reaching and unpredictable consequences.
Subjects: 
USA
Europe
extended nuclear deterrence
nuclear shield
transatlantic relations
US President Donald Trump
France
United Kingdom
escalation dominance
escalation management
countervalue posture
mutually assured destruction
counterforce posture
damage limitation
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
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Document Type: 
Research Report

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