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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11848
Verlag: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms’ beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. In a large survey of German firms, I elicit (i) the subjective probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn and (ii) firms’ exposure to such an event. I consistently find across different empirical approaches that a higher probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn substantially lowers investment, particularly for firms that report higher exposure to the event. I attribute less than half of the investment response to changes in firms' subjective first and second moments. In a quantitative heterogeneous firm model calibrated to match the survey evidence, firms' concern with tail risk makes fiscal policy particularly effective for stabilizing investment.
Schlagwörter: 
macroeconomic tail risk
rare events
firm expectations
investment.
JEL: 
D84
E22
E32
G30
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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