Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/316859 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11745
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
Freedom of speech is central to democracy, but protests that amplify extremist views expose a critical trade-off between civil liberties and public safety. This paper investigates how right-wing demonstrations affect the incidence of hate crimes, focusing on Germany's largest far-right movement since World War II. Leveraging a difference-in-differences framework with instrumental variable and event-study approaches, we find that a 20% increase in local protest attendance nearly doubles hate crime occurrences. We explore three potential mechanisms—signaling, agitation, and coordination—by examining protest dynamics, spatial diffusion, media influence, counter-mobilization, and crime characteristics. Our analysis reveals that large protests primarily act as signals of broad xenophobic support, legitimizing extremist violence. This signaling effect propagates through right-wing social media networks and is intensified by local newspaper coverage and Twitter discussions. Consequently, large protests shift local equilibria, resulting in sustained higher levels of violence primarily perpetrated by repeat offenders. Notably, these protests trigger resistance predominantly online, rather than physical counter-protests.
Subjects: 
protest
signal
hate crime
refugees
right-wing
JEL: 
D74
J15
D83
Z10
D72
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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