Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309952 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
CeDEx Discussion Paper Series No. 2024-08
Publisher: 
The University of Nottingham, Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics (CeDEx), Nottingham
Abstract: 
The growing political polarization may influence a critical input for policymaking: people's economic expectations. This study examines whether political preferences shape individuals' forecasts for key economic indicators (using a preregistered online experiment in the context of Argentina's 2023 election). The experiment (N=1,162) exogenously manipulates (a) the incentives to report accurate forecasts and, (b) the information about current indicators. The results show that providing incentives for accuracy reduces the gap between subjects' forecasts regarding different candidates' performance. Providing information regarding the current economic indicators reduces the variance of the forecasts but not the gaps. These findings are relevant for survey design.
Subjects: 
Motivated Reasoning
Forecasts
Prediction
Expectations
Survey Experiment
JEL: 
C9
D84
D91
E71
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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