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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2024
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11361
Verlag: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
We introduce DOSE⸻Dynamically Optimized Sequential Experimentation⸻to elicit preference parameters. DOSE starts with a model of preferences and a prior over the parameters of that model, then dynamically chooses a customized question sequence for each participant according to an experimenter-selected information criterion. After each question, the prior is updated, and the posterior is used to select the next, informationally-optimal, question. Simulations show that DOSE produces parameter estimates that are approximately twice as accurate as those from established elicitation methods. DOSE estimates of individual-level risk and time preferences are also more accurate, more stable over time, and faster to administer in a large representative, incentivized survey of the U.S. population (N = 2; 000). By reducing measurement error, DOSE identifies a stronger relationship between risk aversion and cognitive ability than other elicitation techniques. DOSE thus provides a flexible procedure that facilitates the collection of incentivized preference measures in the field.
Schlagwörter: 
preference elicitation
risk preferences
time preferences
dynamic experiments
cognitive ability
preference stability
JEL: 
C81
C90
D03
D81
D90
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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