Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/305514 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11272
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
This paper demonstrates the prevalence, pervasiveness, persistence, and resilience of a system of non-Big God religious beliefs, in absence of religious organizations and moralizing prescriptions, thanks to a self-fulfilling mechanism based on social insurance. We focus on the Vietnamese’s beliefs in marriage fortune predictions by the Taoist astrological system Tử Vi. First, we estimate a structural model of assortative marriage matching and show that such beliefs’ importance in marriage formation amounts to 6.5% of that of the entire age and education profile. Second, we estimate the effect of auspiciousness on couples’ outcomes while controlling for selection into marriage using the structural model’s predictions. Auspicious couples receive 11% more social transfers from their extended family, and up to 28% under hardship, because they are believed to be more harmonious and lucky. They further enjoy more consumption, income, and other welfare measures. We link the system’s long-term persistence and resilience to its potential role as a commitment device between families.
Subjects: 
non-Big God religion
traditional beliefs
self-fulfilling prophecy
marriage market
social transfers
social insurance
second-order belief
commitment device
JEL: 
Z12
J12
D64
G52
O15
D83
D16
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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