Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/279365 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2023
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10614
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
Using information from all IMF conditionality programs from 1990 to 2018, we implement a dynamic Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting Regression Adjustment approach to examine the effects of programs, including public sector dismissals, on the size of the shadow economy. The estimated effect five years after the policy intervention indicates an increase in the share of the shadow economy to GDP by about 1.3 percentage points. More importantly, this change involves a sizable reallocation of private economic activity from its formal to its informal part, i.e., the size of the formal private sector relative to the size of the informal sector decreases by seven percentage points. We interpret these findings through the lens of a two-sector model in which there is interdependence between worker incomes and the allocation of product demand across the formal and informal sectors.
Schlagwörter: 
shadow economy
public sector employment
IMF programs
informality
JEL: 
O17
J45
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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