Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271851 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10207
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
The energy transition increases the demand for minerals from ethnically diverse, conflict-prone developing countries. We study whether and where mining is possible in such countries without raising the risk of civil conflict. We proceed in three steps: First, we propose a theoretical model to predict the occurrence and location of conflict events on the territory of a country based on the spatial distribution of ethnic groups and resource rents. Second, we verify the predictive power of this model using granular spatial data from Sierra Leone and confirm its broader applicability using less granular data from a sample of eight West African countries. Third, we employ our framework to simulate the potential impact of new (planned and unplanned) mining projects in Sierra Leone. A crucial insight is that new mining projects do not necessarily translate into more conflict but may pacify the country under the right conditions and the right policies.
Subjects: 
civil conflict
ethnic conflict
natural resources
mining
JEL: 
D74
D82
L72
O13
Q34
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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