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dc.contributor.authorDöhrn, Rolanden
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Christoph M.en
dc.contributor.authorZimmermann, Tobiasen
dc.date.accessioned2008-12-17-
dc.date.accessioned2009-08-06T09:02:36Z-
dc.date.available2009-08-06T09:02:36Z-
dc.date.issued2008-
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-86788-087-9en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/26846-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation indicators for the US and Germany, we demonstrate that our inflation sentiment indicators improve forecast accuracy in comparison to a standard Phillips curve approach. Because the forecast performance is particularly good for longer horizons, we also compare our indicators to traditional measures of core inflation. Here, the sentiment indicators outperform the weighted median and show a similar forecasting power as a trimmed mean. Thus, they offer a convincing alternative to traditional core inflation measures.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aRheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) |cEssenen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aRuhr Economic Papers |x80en
dc.subject.jelE30en
dc.subject.jelE31en
dc.subject.jelE37en
dc.subject.jelC53en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordInflation forecastingen
dc.subject.keywordmonetary policyen
dc.subject.stwInflationen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwInflationserwartungen
dc.subject.stwWahrnehmungen
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwUSAen
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden
dc.titleInflation Forecasting with Inflation Sentiment Indicators-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn588122084en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:rwirep:80en

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