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[Journal:] Statistics in Transition new series (SiTns) [ISSN:] 2450-0291 [Volume:] 23 [Issue:] 3 [Publisher:] Sciendo [Place:] Warsaw [Year:] 2022 [Pages:] 147-165
Sciendo, Warsaw
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic affected every country worldwide. In particular, outbreaks in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland entered the second wave and was exponentially increasing between July and November, 2020. The aims of the study are: to estimate the compound growth rate, to develop a modified exponential time-series model compared with the hyperbolic time-series model, and to estimate the optimal parameters for the models based on the exponential least-squares, three selected points, partial-sums methods, and the hyperbolic least-squares for the daily COVID-19 cases in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland. The speed and spreading power of COVID-19 infections were obtained by using derivative and root-mean-squared methods, respectively. The results show that the exponential least-squares method was the most suitable for the parameter estimation. The compound growth rate of COVID-19 infection was the highest in Switzerland, and the speed and spreading power of COVID-19 infection were the highest in Poland between July and November, 2020.
modified exponential time-series model
method of parameter estimation
compound growth rate
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