Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/265954 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9919
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
Earlier meta-analyses of the economic impact of climate change are updated with more data, with three new results: (1) The central estimate of the economic impact of global warming is always negative. (2) The confidence interval about the estimates is much wider. (3) Elicitation methods are most pessimistic, econometric studies most optimistic. Two previous results remain: (4) The uncertainty about the impact is skewed towards negative surprises. (5) Poorer countries are much more vulnerable than richer ones. A meta-analysis of the impact of weather shocks reveals that studies, which relate economic growth to temperature levels, cannot agree on the sign of the impact whereas studies, which make economic growth a function of temperature change do agree on the sign but differ an order of magnitude in effect size. The former studies posit that climate change has a permanent effect on economic growth, the latter that the effect is transient. The impact on economic growth implied by studies of the impact of climate change is close to the growth impact estimated as a function of weather shocks. The social cost of carbon shows a similar pattern to the total impact estimates, but with more emphasis on the impacts of moderate warming in the near and medium term.
Subjects: 
climate change
weather shocks
economic growth
social cost of carbon
JEL: 
O44
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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