Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/265741 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 15520
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
We provide first evidence that temporal variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely-held perception in the UK that households of South Asian descent store gold jewellery at home. Price movements on the international market for gold exogenously affect the expected gains from burgling these households, which become relatively more lucrative targets as the gold price increases. Using a neighbourhood-level panel on reported crime and difference-in-differences, we find that burglaries in South Asian neighbourhoods are more sensitive to variations in the gold price than other neighbourhoods in the same municipality, confirming that burglars react rationally to variations in the expected returns to their activities. We conduct a battery of tests on neighbourhood and individual data to eliminate alternative explanations.
Subjects: 
crime
gold prices
returns to crime
Becker-model
optimal foraging theory
criminal behaviour
crime location
JEL: 
K42
J19
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.