Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/253488 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Citation: 
[Journal:] Theoretical Economics [ISSN:] 1555-7561 [Volume:] 17 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] The Econometric Society [Place:] New Haven, CT [Year:] 2022 [Pages:] 291-329
Publisher: 
The Econometric Society, New Haven, CT
Abstract: 
This paper shows that belief-driven economic fluctuations are a general feature of many determinate macroeconomic models. In environments with hidden state variables, forecast-model misspecification can break the link between indeterminacy and sunspots by establishing the existence of "statistical sunspots" in models that have a unique rational expectations equilibrium. To form expectations, agents regress on a set of observables that can include serially correlated nonfundamental factors (e.g., sunspots, judgment, expectations shocks, etc.). In equilibrium, agents attribute, in a self-fulfilling way, some of the serial correlation observed in data to extrinsic noise, i.e., statistical sunspots. This leads to sunspot equilibria in models with a unique rational expectations equilibrium. Unlike many rational sunspots, these equilibria are found to be generically stable under learning. Applications are developed in the context of a New Keynesian and an asset-pricing model.
Subjects: 
Adaptive learning
animal spirits
business cycles
optimal monetary policy
JEL: 
D82
D83
E40
E50
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc Logo
Document Type: 
Article

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.