Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/252094 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9577
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
How does import protection affect export performance? In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization can reduce industry-level exports by cutting domestic production. We show that this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). But there was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our empirical results to calibrate the strength of scale economies in a quantitative trade model. Counterfactual analysis implies that while PNTR increased aggregate US exports relative to GDP, exports declined in the most exposed industries because of the export destruction effect. On aggregate, the US and China both gain from PNTR, but the gains are larger for China.
Subjects: 
trade policy
import liberalization
comparative advantage
scale economies
China shock
JEL: 
F12
F13
F15
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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