Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/242493 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Diskussionspapier No. 190
Publisher: 
Helmut-Schmidt-Universität - Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Fächergruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre, Hamburg
Abstract: 
In this study the impact of car scrappage schemes is reassessed and disentangled for six OECD countries, namely Japan, Germany, South Korea, the Slovak Republic, the United Kingdom and the United States, following a rather novel empirical approach, the Synthetic Control Method using Time Series (SCMT). Scrappage schemes were implemented in many countries in response to the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and were hotly debated among economists and policymakers, as many disagreed about the sustainability of the programs' effects. With the use of the synthesized control units constructed transparently with SCMT, the effects of car scrappage schemes on vehicle registrations can be observed and calculated over time. Results suggest that despite scrapping subsidies induced some intertemporal substitution, net effects on car registrations remained positive in all investigated countries with the notable exception of the United Kingdom, where additional sales were completely crowded out by subsequent consumer reticence.
Subjects: 
synthetic control method
scrappage schemes
automotive industry
intertemporal substitution
SCMT
pull-forward effects
JEL: 
L52
L62
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
668.33 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.