Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/238612 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
ADBI Working Paper Series No. 1255
Publisher: 
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo
Abstract: 
While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of the observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results suggest that countries that experienced larger output losses are those with lower GDP per capita, more stringent containment measures, higher deaths per capita, higher tourism dependence, more liberalized financial markets, higher pre-crisis growth, lower fiscal stimulus, higher ethnic and religious fractionalization, and more democratic regimes. With respect to the first factor, lower resilience of poorer countries reflects the higher economic costs of containment measures and deaths in such countries and less effective fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
recession
resilience
WALS
BMA
model averaging
JEL: 
E02
G01
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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