Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229558
Authors: 
Bennani, Hamza
Neuenkirch, Matthias
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8740
Abstract: 
We estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 2003Q1–2019Q4 with a special emphasis on credit conditions. With the help of this model, monetary policy transmission can be described as mixture of two states (e.g., a normal state and a crisis state), using an underlying logit model determining the relative weight of these states over time. We show that shocks to the credit spread and shocks to credit standards directly lead to a reduction of real GDP growth, whereas shocks to the quantity of credit are less important in explaining growth fluctuations. Credit standards and the credit spread are also the key determinants of the underlying state of the economy in the logit submodel. Together with a more pronounced transmission of monetary policy shocks in the crisis state, this provides further evidence for a financial accelerator in the euro area. Finally, the detrimental effect of credit conditions is also reflected in the labor market.
Subjects: 
credit growth
credit spread
credit standards
euro area
financial accelerator
mixture VAR
monetary policy transmission
JEL: 
E44
E52
E58
G21
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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