Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/225339
Authors: 
Grevenbrock, Nils
Groneck, Max
Ludwig, Alexander
Zimper, Alexander
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
SAFE Working Paper No. 200
Abstract: 
This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness and relative pessimism increase with age. We document that direct measures of cognitive weakness and motivational attitudes share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of subjective survival beliefs: cognitive weakness rather than optimism is an increasingly important contributor to overestimation of survival chances in old age.
Subjects: 
Subjective Survival Beliefs
Probability Weighting Function
Confirmatory Bias
Cognition
Optimism
Pessimism
JEL: 
D83
D91
I10
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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