Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/216562 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8166
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Epidemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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