Using a threshold vector error correction model approach, we find the wheat market of Russia to be segmented, with the primary grain export region poorly integrated with the domestic market. Results also indicate that trade costs are high, hindering the spatial market efficiency of wheat markets in Russia. This study demonstrates that an empirical benchmark allows for a more comprehensive assessment of the spatial market efficiency compared to the theoretical benchmark that is normally applied. The study shows that the distinction between grain production and export potential, especially for markets located in peripheral regions of Russia, is essential to correctly identify Russia's future role for global food security. As a general conclusion, apart from increasing agricultural production potential, it is also essential to strengthen spatial market efficiency in the agricultural sector to boost Russia's agricultural export potential and the country's prominent role in global food security.
spatial market efficiency grain production potential Russia TVECM regularized bayesian estimator