Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/204450
Authors: 
Schön, Matthias
Stähler, Nikolai
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Bundesbank Discussion Paper 33/2019
Abstract: 
In a three-region New Keynesian life-cycle model calibrated to Germany, the Euro area (without Germany) and the rest of the world, we analyze the impact of population ageing on net foreign asset and current account developments. Using unsynchronized demographic trends by taking those of Germany as given and assuming constant population everywhere else, we are able to generate German current account surpluses of up to 15% of GDP during the first half of this century. However, projected demographic trends from 2000 to 2080 in OECD countries (and China in an additional analysis) are much more synchronized. Feeding these into our model suggests that the average annual German current account surplus from 2000 to 2018 that should be attributed to ageing reduces to around 2.83% (1.23%) of GDP, with a maximum at 4.3% (2.7%) in 2006 (when taking into account China), turning negative around 2035.
Subjects: 
Population Ageing
Net Foreign Assets
Global Imbalances
DSGE Models
JEL: 
E43
E44
E52
E58
ISBN: 
978-3-95729-624-5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.