Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/201879 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 7653
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
By examining discrepancies between officially reported GDP growth figures and the actual economic growth implied by satellite-based night time light (NTL) density, we investigate whether democracies manipulate officially reported GDP figures, and if so, whether such manipulation pays political dividends. We find that the over-reporting of growth rates does indeed precede increases in popular support, with around a 1% over-statement associated with a 0.5% increase in voter intentions for the incumbent. These results are robust to allowing the elasticity of official GDP statistics to NTL to be country specific, as well as accounting for the quality of governance, and checks and balances on executive power.
Subjects: 
manipulation
political entrenchment
electoral cycles
trust
popular support
GDP
night lights
JEL: 
D72
D73
O43
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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