Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/200642 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) No. 630
Publisher: 
Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Hannover
Abstract: 
This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrelation among the ASFR time series. The effects of certain measures are also quantified through the introduction of policy variables. Our approach is applicable to probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigating the potential outcome of political intervention. A slight increase in the TFR is probable until 2040. In the median scenario, the TFR will increase from 1.6 in 2016 to 1.68 in 2040 and will be between 1.46 and 1.92 with a probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of the mid-1990s. Two simple alternate scenarios are used to illustrate the estimated ceteris paribus effect of changes in our policy variables on the TFR.
Subjects: 
Fertility
Statistical Demography
Forecasting
Family Policy
Principal Component Analysis
Time Series Analysis
JEL: 
C22
C49
C53
C54
E62
J11
J13
J38
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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